I swear... if my future kids ask me how 2020 went, all I can tell them this is: "A virus named after a beer messed up the whole year, and two demented perverted war criminals polarizing politicians (one of whom is a celebrity) were facing a challenge from another celebrity, who is as useful as a vegan on the grill and I graduated. As for anything else, America finally acknowledged that police brutality is bad, and that we should do something about it. So much progress. So much winning. Speaking of winning, if the polls are accurate (they technically were in 2016, but that's a whole different issue for another piece), Donald J. 'When the looting starts, the shooting starts!' Trump (R-FL), will not be doing any of that 'winning' stuff he's talked about for far too long.
The Background.
So just as America was continuing to commit the worst forms of sado-masochism on itself and the world debate on who to choose to be the President of the deeply divided United States, rapper, singer, songwriter, and professional clown husband to Kim Kardashian, Kanye West (Birthday Party-IL, I wish I could say that this is all a joke, I promise you), announced on Twitter on July 4, 2020, that he would run to be the next absolute disaster President.
None of you will ever truly know how much I hope he is not serious. But then again, he has done other really stupid bizarre things without thinking.
This guy is not wrong.
Now, most of you probably had the same reaction that I did, right?
My reaction:
"The virus named after a beer, a potential war with Iran, impeachment trials, police brutality, Biden gets the nod, and now Kayne is doing something stupid, as usual."
Some Important Information.
Mr. West has missed the opportunity to file as an Independent in New York (29 electoral votes), Texas (38), New Mexico (5), Indiana (11), Maine (4), and North Carolina (15). That's 102 electoral votes (which split 65-37 for Donald Trump against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton), and that's already a crucial bloc of votes to capture to have a prayer of winning the White House. The deadline is fast approaching in Florida (29), Oklahoma (7), Michigan (16), and South Carolina (9). That's another 61 electoral votes (which all went to the President in 2016. With all those states combined, that's 163 electoral votes (which split 126-37 for Trump over Clinton).
Mr. West could file as a write in candidate in some states, but Oklahoma will be the most difficult due to their extremely tough ballot access laws. If Mr. West were able to get on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia (3), and he captured at least those 163 electoral votes, he's captured 30.3% of the total Electoral College votes possible (538), while capturing only 60.3% of the requisite 270 electoral votes needed to win the election outright. I mention him winning the outright electoral majority, since there's absolutely a 0% chance that 26/50 Congressional delegations vote for him to be elected in a contingent election, in accordance with the Twelfth Amendment of the U.S Constitution (COTUS). Mr. West would have to find some issue to campaign on that would convince those delegations to commit political suicide vote for him. Kanye would most likely be shut out of the House, and if he places worse than second in the Electoral College, his running mate, Michelle Tidball, would be ineligible to be considered by the U.S Senate for the Vice Presidency.
Who Would Benefit/Suffer From A Kanye West Campaign?
Some people have wondered if former Vice President Joesph R. "You Ain't Black" Biden Jr., (D-DE), would suffer a defeat in the Electoral College (even if he won the national popular vote), due to a campaign by Mr. West. This tweet seems to think so.
Except, the evidence is not backing up the theory that Kayne will give the anti-establishment a protest vote spoil the election and get Trump re-elected. In fact, it suggests the opposite. In a YouGov/Huffington Post poll from September, 2015, 25% of black Americans said they would consider voting for him, compared to 3% of white Americans. He was also found to have a 39% favorability amongst blacks, 9% amongst whites, 17% amongst Democrats, and 11% amongst Republicans. Kayne would have possibly gotten a strong third place nationally, placing third and second in some states, but he would not be able to outright win the Presidency, with that kind of support.
His standing in the polls have changed almost three years later. And the partisan difference is blatant. His favorability amongst blacks is at 11%, 20% amongst whites, 13% amongst Democrats, and 34% of Republicans (this was the from the same pollster back in 2015). This poll was from April, 2018, and by May, CNN found that 72% of respondents had heard a "little bit" of Kayne's stupid comments on politics, and while Kayne was extremely unpopular amongst Democrats (12-67%, a net favorability of -55%), while Republicans split 35-35% (a net favorability of 0% LMFAO). Accroding to an SSR/CNN poll, Kayne's unpopularity was found to be (as of May 2-5, 2018) 53% unfavorability, and 23% favorability, a net approval of -30%.
Can Kayne Win?
So far, no. He's continuing to miss the filing deadlines for appearing on the ballot in a number of states (the ones I just mentioned above), but he could capture at least 5% of the popular vote, and his party would qualify for federal funding. In order for Kayne to win any states in the Electoral College, he would need to cut into the support of both President Trump and Vice President Biden to muster up enough support to pull of a narrow plurality win, and if Kanye draws out disaffected voters, that could also prove to be powerful. But if his support is relatively even across the country, he will lose, but if it is concentrated in a region, or a cluster of states, that would be more helpful. For instance, the last third party candiated to receive pledged electoral votes was in 1968, when former (AND future) Alabama Governor George C. Wallace Jr., (AI-AL), who won most of the deep South, and captured 45 pledged electoral votes, and one faithless elector from North Carolina, in his campaign against the winner, former VPOTUS Richard M. Nixon (R-N.Y), and incumbent VPOTUS Hubert H, Humphrey Jr., (D-MN). Governor Wallace's support was uneven, and it was heavily concentrated in the South, where his lowest level of support was in West Virginia, getting 9.6%, while getting more than 10% in every other Southern state.
He was also able to capture powerful pluralities and majorities in the Southern states he won (they were the only states to vote for him), and that helped him reach nearly 9% of the Electoral College. Ross Perot's support in the 1992 election was relatively even, and he failed to win any states in the Electoral College, but he did win a few Counties or independent Cities, and he did place second in Maine and Utah. So a Kayne West campaign will need to meet the filing deadlines that remain to get on the ballot in as many states as there are left, and if he's on the ballot in enough states to hypothetically win the Electoral College, he has a path to victory. If he's even one vote short (269/270), he has no such path. The two major parties have infrastructure, such as fundraising, automatic ballot access, and states that they can rely on.
Third parties and independents don't have such infrastructure. In the TV series "Designated Survivor" (a fantastic show, and yes SPOILER ALERT), incumbent President Thomas A. Kirkman (I-N.Y) is elected to a full term after ascending to the Presidency upon the U.S Capitol being bombed, and he's the only cabinet member to survive. He wins easily against his Republican predecessor, and Democratic challenger with a large electoral majority.
This was the map I saw on the screen, and you know the GOP has failed when they lose Texas, and Democrats have failed when they lose New York, California and Washington state. An incumbent Independent President would be a formidable non duopoly candidate, and it could be a way to break (whether temporarily or permanently) the two party stronghold. If Kayne West were to win any states, this is the best electoral map he can get.
Note: I can see Biden winning Florida, but Florida is Florida, the King of Close Elections.
I cannot see him winning more than four electoral votes, and he still lose the election, likely to Joe Biden. I don't see Trump winning with or without Kayne running, and I'll explain that in another piece. But Maine has voted Independent before, four times for Angus S. King Jr., twice as Governor of Maine (1995-2003), and twice as their U.S Senator (2013-present). Kayne would have to broaden his platform, and try to appeal to disaffected voters, as well as make the case for why he's qualfied to be President, what his plans are, and how he'd govern. And the big question he'd have to answer is: Why he wants to be President.
What Is His Platform?
Mr. West's platform so far is incomplete, but he's a summary:
-He is pro-life. He claims that the Democrats have pushed black people to use "Plan B", as a form of voter suppression. These comments have won praise from various right wing websites, and pundits.
-He sends mixed signals on the "Black Lives Matter" movement.
-He opposes capital punishment.
-He is calling to amend the Thirteenth Amendment to the COTUS, to end the loophole which allows the Government to enslave convicts penal labor.
-He is calling for a more sustainable economy, which would include his plans to begin hydroponic, cotton, wheat, and hemp farming in Cody, Wyoming. He also called for more research into environmentally friending dyeing, stating:
"Dyeing is one of the main things that's impacting the planet and the fashion industry."
-He's called for modernizing education, and has condemned "woke culture", saying it would take "Jesus out of school", and made some other nuclear takes that I'll link here.
-He supports an "America First" foreign policy, but then says he would need to further develop his foreign policy. He has expressed his admiration for China, and has rebuked the racist smear of tying Chinese people to the coronavirus.
-He opposes gun control, and has been praised by the NRA.
-He said some really stupid bizarre things about vaccines, and probably most definitely got his information from some Karen on Facebook.
-Mr. West invoked the "Democratic plantation" bullshit theory, claiming that Democrats use welfare to keep black people dependent on the Democratic party.
Out of the ten points, he's got it right on gun control, modernizing education (although it's a lie to say that 'Jesus has been removed from class rooms', kids can still pray if they choose to do so), calling for a sustainable economy, abolishing penal labor, abolishing capital punishment, but the rest is either wrong, or lacks nuance. So it's a 5-5 split.
The Quick Answer.
He doesn't have a prayer. The guy's LITERAL campaign slogan is "YES!", has been endorsed by sleezeball celebrities like ELON MUSK, and his own wife, Kim (although to be fair, he efforts at criminal justice reform makes her a lot better than him, ngl). America already elected Donald Trump, a celebrity with no real plan, and it's unlikely that America wants another person who would need on the jobs training. Chao.
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Preceded by: "Stop Defending Police Brutality."
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